Gap was 23 points in June; GOP challenger leads among independents
by Fauzia J. Choudhury
August 12, 2025 | New York: The political temperature in New York is rising as summer winds down, with Governor Kathy Hochul facing signs of vulnerability. A new Siena College poll shows her lead over potential Republican challenger Rep. Elise Stefanik has shrunk to just 14 points—down from nearly 23 points in June.
If the election were held today, Hochul would receive 45% of the vote, compared to 31% for Stefanik. Sixteen percent of voters remain undecided, while 8% would back another candidate.
Approval Ratings and Public Sentiment
Hochul’s favorability stands at 42% positive and 44% negative. Meanwhile, 45% of New Yorkers believe the state is heading in the wrong direction. Analysts say these figures suggest voter confidence is not guaranteed and that the political landscape could shift significantly over the next 18 months.
Stefanik’s Rise and Challenges
Stefanik, the third-ranking Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives, remains relatively unknown statewide—46% of voters say they don’t know enough about her. Still, she leads Hochul among independents (35% to 32%) and in key suburban counties including Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam (41% to 39%). Political experts say these numbers signal that with the right strategy, Stefanik could make the race even closer.
Political Context
While Democrats have long dominated statewide politics in New York, Republicans have shown unexpected competitiveness in recent years. Lee Zeldin’s strong 2022 gubernatorial run served as a wake-up call for Democrats. This time, suburban and upstate voters are expected to play an outsized role in deciding the outcome.
Key Issues Driving the Race
The state’s economy, cost of living, crime rates, and housing shortages are pressing issues for the Hochul administration. Many voters say progress has been lacking in these areas. Stefanik is expected to campaign aggressively on these fronts, seeking to highlight the governor’s perceived weaknesses.
Looking Ahead
With the 2026 election still more than a year away, this poll delivers a warning for Hochul and an opportunity for Stefanik. For the governor, the challenge is to rebuild voter trust and expand her appeal beyond the Democratic base. For Stefanik, the path forward lies in increasing her name recognition and solidifying her edge among independents.
