NDA to win 301 seats if General elections were held today: ABP News-CSDS survey


NEW DELHI: Riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, the BJP-led ruling NDA will bounce back to power with 301 seats with 34 per cent of vote share if Lok Sabha elections were held today, ABP News-CSDS survey has predicted. The Congress-led UP is projected to double its tally compared to 2014 elections and may bag 127 seats but will remain way behind of the magic figure of 272.

The Narendra Modi-led government continues to ride high on its popularity, even as clear rumblings of discontent are visible below the surface. This is the strong message from the second round of the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) Survey conducted by ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS.

The survey has found that in the event of a snap Lok Sabha election in the country today, BJP lead NDA may get a total of 293-309 seats. This is about 30 seats less than what NDA actually won in 2014 Lok Sabha Elections. In 2014 BJP alone won 282 seats leading the NDA which in total captured 336 seats. If NDA loses 30 seats out of 336 it won in 2014 elections, it means BJP alone may finish short of majority mark of 272.


The slight dip in the BJP’s popularity seems to be benefitting the Congress party the most, for now. UPA is expected to bag 122-132 seats if polls were held today. In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections UPA could only reach a figure of 59 with Congress winning 44 seats out of it. Clearly UPA seems to double it’s seat share in Lok Sabha if polls were held today.

According to the survey NDA’s performance is strongest in North India followed by western India. UPA is far behind NDA except in South India where it is getting almost double seats than NDA.

The NDA seems to be faring well in the Eastern states on India. Under Narendra Modi’s leadership, the NDA is slated to win over 50 per cent of the total seats in the region. Out of 140 constituencies, the current ruling coalition is likely to win in 72 with around 43 per cent of the vote share. The UPA again appears to be staggering behind and may only get 18 seats with 21 per cent vote share. Other parties may bag somewhere around 52 seats with 36 per cent vote share.

In South Indian states, the UPA is projected to be way ahead of the NDA. If elections were to be held today, the UPA will put in its tally 63 out of 132 seats in the region with 39 per cent vote share. The NDA may secure only 34 seats with the vote share of 25 per cent. Remaining 35 seats in the region will go to other parties. In the first ‘mood of the nation’ survey conducted in 2017, the NDA was getting 39 seats and the UPA 52. In a good news to the Congress-led coalition, it has improved its tally since then with 11 more seats in the region.

In North India, the NDA is projected to wallop the UPA and headed for a clean sweep like it did in 2014. The survey gave 111 out of 152 seats to the NDA and predicted a measly 13 for the UPA. It predicted a vote share of 45 per cent for the NDA and 22 per cent for challenger UPA. Other parties are slated to win 27 constituencies with 34 per cent vote share.

Out of 118 seats of Western India, NDA again emerged on top with 84 seats as per the survey. The UPA will be at a distant second position with only 33 seats. There will be a difference of eight per cent in the vote sare of the coliation. The NDA is projected to secure 48 per cent votes while the UPA may get 40 per cent.

According to the MOTN Survey 2018, if an election had happened this month, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would have in all possibility secured 40% of the votes nationally and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (as it existed in 2014), 30%. The remaining 30% would have got distributed between parties like the BSP, SP, CPI, CPI (M), Trinamool Congress, AIADMK, BJD, JDS, TRS, AAP and other regional outfits.

BJP would in all likelihood secure about 34% of the total votes. While this estimated vote share is three percentage points higher than what the BJP had got in the Lok Sabha election of 2014, it is, quite significantly, five points less compared to May 2017, when round one of the MOTN Survey had found the ruling party to be netting 39% votes nationally. The BJP’s allies remain where they were eight months ago, securing 6% of the votes.

The Rahul Gandhi-led party is expected to secure the vote of one in every four Indians (25%) if a national election takes place now. This is an upward improvement compared to the May 2017 MOTN Survey when it was found to be receiving 21% votes nationwide. The Congress’s recovery is not surprising as the incumbency effect is finally catching up with the BJP and therefore, slowly, its vote share is reaching the same level as in 2014. Congress’s allies are expected to secure 5% of the votes, down a bit since May.


Narendra Modi is still people’s first choice for the post of Prime Minister

Prime Minister Modi’s own personal popularity has also declined in the last eight months, although he continues to be the most popular leader by quite a distance. In May 2017, 44% of the voters had wanted him to return as prime minister in the event of a snap election. Now, the same figure is down by 7 points to 37%. Modi’s popularity has in fact declined across all the four regions, with the drop being the sharpest in south India.

Narendra Modi’s biggest challenge at the moment seems to be coming from Congress President Rahul Gandhi whose popularity has gone up sharply across the country. Voters’ preference for Rahul Gandhi as the country’s next prime minister has more than doubled in the last eight months – from 9% to 20%. The sudden surge in Rahul’s popularity could well be largely an effect of his recent taking over as the President of the Congress party. It might be the case that now that he is heading the Congress, voters take him more seriously than they did earlier. The Congress’s fairly creditable performance in the recent Gujarat assembly elections might also partly explain the spike.


People’s Satisfaction with Modi Government’s performance has declined

The survey found satisfaction with the performance of the Modi government to have declined sharply in the last eight months. While in May 2017, close to two thirds of the voters nationwide had reported satisfaction with the NDA government’s work, the figure has now dropped by 13 points to a little over half. Dissatisfaction has gone up form a little over one fourth to four of every ten, a rise of 13 percentage points. More significantly, the proportion of those fully dissatisfied with the government’s work is now greater than the proportion of those fully satisfied (17% as opposed to 10%). What should worry the BJP even more is that dissatisfaction with the Modi government’s performance has gone up in nearly all the States where the survey was conducted, barring one or two. For instance, while 12% of the voters in Rajasthan had been dissatisfied with the Central government’s performance back in May 2017, this has now gone up three times to 38%. In Uttar Pradesh, the figure of dissatisfaction has increased from 21% to 37%. The BJP may well still be the dominant party in many States at the moment in terms of voter preference, but these growing figures of disenchantment could spell trouble for the party in the months ahead.


Now more people believe Modi failed in bringing Achhe Din

Another indicator of people’s disappointment with the performance of the Modi government is their negative opinion on Achhe Din. Back in May, nearly two-thirds (63%) had said that Modi had succeeded in bringing Achhe Din. Eight months later, the figure has fallen to just four of every ten. There are in fact more people now who believe that Modi has failed in bringing Acche Din than those who think he has succeeded (50%-41%).

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Employment is the biggest problem of the nation

For the second straight MOTN survey, most voters identified unemployment as being India’s biggest problem currently. In May 2017, 25% had thought so; now 27% think so. This belief that India’s biggest bane currently is lack of jobs is most strongly held in the northern states of the country – four of every ten respondents living in north India reported unemployment as being the country’s biggest problem as opposed to one in every four in east India, two of every ten in the western and central part, and less than one seventh in the south.




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